原标题：比利时前首相：中国倡议为全球议程作念出凸起孝顺

【导读】比利时前首相伊夫·莱特姆日前作客中国不雅察智库与中国日报新媒体讨好推出的《连线·全球政要访谈》节目，盛赞中国的“一带一齐”倡议、全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议和全球斯文倡议是对全球议程的凸起孝顺，尤其是“一带一齐”伙伴国的积极后劲得以开释。他暗示，全球陆续体系亟待诊疗，宇宙列国间应加强有形和无形的互联互通，同期应正式合理当用资金，确保投资形态的可捏续性。

记者：中国的“一带一齐”倡议与全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球斯文倡议雷同，齐是向宇宙提供寰球居品。您对这些倡议关于构建愈加公正的全球陆续体系、构建东谈主类运谈共同体的作用有何倡导？

伊夫·莱特姆：

我以为这些倡议非常好，它们非常稳当将来全球陆续的议程。咱们需要对全球陆续体系进行从头诊疗和重置。昔日七八十年来，讨好国系统给咱们带来了许多平允和红利。但全球陆续体系需要重置和从头均衡。咱们必须沟通各方意见。

I think these initiatives are excellent. And I think they fit very well into the agenda of the future of global governance. We need to readjust, we need to reset the global governance. The UN system has given us a lot of benefits and dividends over the last 70 -- almost 80 years. But there's a need for reset, there's a need for rebalance. We have to take into account all the views.

我以为全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议，以及绿色发展领域的倡议，齐是对全球议程的凸起孝顺。在本年秋天召开的讨好国大会后，咱们有必要在接下来的一年乃至几年时辰里好好商量这些议程。我但愿这能指令咱们再次加强多边体系，这个体系因好意思国在某些时期片面退出而遭遇重创，激发了列国度集团之间的不信任。

I think that the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, also in the field of green development, these are excellent contributions to the global agenda that we have to discuss in the upcoming year and a couple of years starting with UNGA in autumn. And I would hope that this leads us to strengthen, again, the multilateral system that has suffered a lot from unilateral withdrawal by the US at certain moments raising distrust among blocs.

图片起原：新华社

记者：您对欧洲全球流派、七国集团全球基础规范和投资伙伴关系以及中国“一带一齐”等不同基础规范计议怎么擢升投资效用、加强全球经济和供应链、促进遥远息争有何倡导？它们有哪些相通点和不同点？存在哪些挑战？

伊夫·莱特姆：

领先，我以为共同投资，将经济体之间的投资和智力结合起来，亦然一个确立和平的有劲的计策器具。我敬佩经济息争、共建基础规范、共同投资也会带来和平——不仅是更好的发展、更好的经济发展，还有和平，因为东谈主们通过相互买卖，通过形态息争，不错减少对相互执行暴力的倾向。

First of all, I think that co-investing, bringing together investment and capacities between economies is also a very strong peace-building policy tool. I'm a strong believer that economic cooperation and common infrastructure, co-investment brings also peace, not only better development, better economic development, but also just peace, because people that trade, people that work together on projects, there will be more reluctance to engage in violence against each other.

是以回到你的问题，“一带一齐”倡议，以及欧洲的“全球流派”计议、好意思国关于改善基础规范的投资、印度政府吸收的一些举措等等，齐朝着归拢个方上前进，那即是要更好地开释经济体的后劲、互联互通的后劲。这少许至关弥留。面前，我以为欧盟和欧洲经济需要对宇宙洞开，需要集体步履，就像东谈主类需要氧气雷同。

So come then to your question, the belt initiative, the silk road initiative, the BRI, and also the Europe's Global Gateway, also the American investment in improving infrastructure, which is very much needed, some initiatives taken by the Indian government and so on., they all go in the same direction, which is to try to better unleash the potential of economies, the potential of connection interaction. This is crucial. I think at this moment, for instance, the European Union and European economy needs openness and collectiveness to the world as a human being needs oxygen.

为了增进有计划，改善各经济体之间的基础规范互联互通非常弥留。然而请正式，咱们应该作念的不单是是互联互通，咱们还要正式增强互联互通的方式，这种方式应该比以往齐愈加可捏续。这种互联互通有可能是造谣的，也有可能是有形的，通过公路、铁路和空中进行的确的交流，但一定要正式在互联互通、交通出行和买卖来去中加强可捏续性。

To improve the connection, to improve the infrastructure links between these economies is very important, but -- there's a big but -- we should do more than just interconnect. We should also look into the way we increase the interconnection and that way should be more than ever sustainable, so could be virtual when possible, could be physical with real exchanges over roads and over railways and through the air when needed, but improving resilience and improving sustainability of our connections, our mobility and our trade.

图片起原：新华社

记者：息争是否会带来一些挑战？

伊夫·莱特姆：

是的，我以为在咱们现在这个时期，更弥留的是摊派拖累，而不是共享朝上红利。诚然，中国的经济取得了雄伟的朝上，增长速率很快，况兼现在仍在链接增长。但在更进修的经济体，比如西方的好意思国、欧洲和日本等，咱们正处于使经济发展愈加可捏续的要道阶段。与共享朝上红利比拟，更弥留的是摊派拖累。诚然了，东谈主们不可爱拖累，东谈主们更可爱获取利益，而不是相互商量咱们应该怎么摊派拖累，举例应答形势变化挑战和减少二氧化碳排放的计策。因此我以为，大致实在罢了积极贬抑，带来双赢的讲究息争至关弥留。

Yeah, I think we are all live in times where it is more about sharing burdens than sharing the dividends of progress. China, of course, is still making an enormous economic progress with high growth figures and is resuming growth now. But in more mature economies, like the West -- the US, Europe, some other countries all over the globe, Japan. We are at the stage where it is of utmost importance to render our economic development more sustainable. And there it is more about sharing burden that sharing the dividend of progress. And that's of course a less popular item. People prefer seizing benefits than discuss amongst each other how we should share the burden of policies, for instance, that meet the challenges of climate change and reduce CO2 emissions. So I think that good cooperation that creates real view on positive outcomes, win-wins is crucial.

记者：“一带一齐”给贵国带来了哪些令东谈主属宗旨确立？

伊夫·莱特姆：

我想说，就比利时而言，早在“一带一齐”倡议建议之前，咱们就一经得到了许多来自中国的投资。我铭记我曾与中远集团的东谈主士见过面，还有泽布吕赫和安特卫普港与上海等中国口岸间的有计划对比利时经济发展而言至关弥留。华为等中国企业在比利时名气很大，为咱们提供高技术处分决策，这甚而有些超出了“一带一齐”倡议的启动方针。比利时还有一个列日机场，手脚阿里巴巴的配送诊疗平台。是以说，比利时一经和中国建立起讲究的有计划，许多企业也和中国公司有密切的有计划，甚而一经在中国开展了弥留业务。举例，我的选区有一家名为必佳乐的公司，它是苏州最早引进的外资企业之一。再如，西安杨森是中国最早引进的中外合伙制药公司之一。因此，比利时与中国有着悠久的传统息争关系。

I would say that in terms of Belgium already before the BRI, we had a lot of Chinese investment. I remember that I met the people from COSCO and for instance for the Belgian economy, the links between a port area, Antwerp, Zeebrugge to Shanghai, to the ports in China has been crucial for the development. Companies like Huawei and others are very well-established in Belgium and provide us with high-tech solutions. It goes a little bit beyond what the intentions were of the BRI. We also have an airport of Liege that functions as a distribution and dispatching platform for Alibaba. So we already have very good connections with China, also a lot of enterprises that were closely together with China companies or have even very important presence here in China. For instance, in my constituency we have a company called Picanol who was one of the first companies established in Suzhou. We had the pharmaceutical company in Belgium that were amongst the first to be Janssen Pharmaceuticals for instance. So we have a long tradition already of good connections with China.

我以为，咫尺“一带一齐”倡议在那些基础规范发展薄弱的国度确认着更弥留的作用，中国与西方、非洲国度的率领东谈主全部，发展基础规范，开释经济后劲。在那儿，它确乎产生了讲究的效果，为当地东谈主提供了更好的管事，让东谈主们生存愈加便利。我最近去了索马里，看到那儿修了新铁路，看到这些基础规范给东谈主们的往常生存带来了什么，以及这些更完善的交通规范所带来的经济后劲。

I think that the BRI now today plays a more important role in countries that until now had a weak development of the infrastructure, where China joins forces with the West and with the leadership of countries in Africa to develop their infrastructure and to unleash economic potential. There it really pays out in terms of better accessibility, better service to the people. I was recently in Somalia and I could see, for instance, a new railway connection, what it brings to the people in their daily lives, and also the economic potential these better connections bring.

朝鲜人民军仪仗队在烈士陵园整齐列队。现场奏响中华人民共和国国歌和朝鲜民主主义人民共和国国歌。

安靠智电(300617)

公司概况：发家于电缆连接件系列产品，已成长为国内GIL行业领先水平公司于2006年成立，2017年深交所上市，目前主营业务包括电缆连接件系列产品、GIL产品及系统服务、智慧模块化变电站、智慧海绵光储充一体化系统服务。公司注重创新研发，2007年研发的500kV电缆连接件打破了国外的长期垄断，在国内率先研发出220kV—1100kVGIL，并且行业首创“开变一体机”。23Q1公司营收达2.78亿元，yoy+17.82%。未来看点：城市、低温地区大容量输电领域拉动GIL需求，智慧模块变电站业务贡献业绩新增长点。

电缆连接件系列产品：产品覆盖1kV-500kV全系列，项目经验丰富公司电缆连接件产品系列齐全，覆盖1kV～500kV全系列，应用场景广泛。

公司是目前国内少数具有500kV电压等级电缆连接件产品运行业绩的企业之一，其他电压等级产品中标量亦名列前茅。

GIL产品及系统服务：国际首创220kV三相共箱GIL，国内市场份额达50%+公司GIL技术引领行业。公司方面，目前已具备10KV-1100KV全系列GIL产品生产能力，国际首创的220kV三相共箱GIL比传统单相GIL成本低30%左右。公司在手订单充足，募投项目达产后总产能140km。市场方面，城市用电负荷增加，扩容日益迫切。GIL具备节省土地资源、大容量输电性能等优势，可以有效解决城市在扩容过程中面临的输电容量不足、土地资源紧缺等问题并打开市场空间。同时GIL具备抗低温能力，伴随西北等地风光大基地、抽蓄电站等起量，GIL有望得到更多应用。

智慧模块化变电站业务：创新研发“开变一体机”，有望通过性能优势解决城市变电站建设难题，打开市场空间

公司将GIS开关和变压器融合一体化，创新研发的“开变一体机”为核心的智慧模块化变电站相比传统电站造价降低30%、节省70%占地面积、建设周期缩短80%。其性能优势与城市变电站扩容过程中面临的土地资源紧张特点相类似，有望在城市变电扩容过程中得到大量应用。

盈利预测与估值：

我们预计，受益GIL业务国内市场需求增量、智慧模块化变电站业务快速起量，23-25年公司营收、盈利均有望实现较高增速增长。我们预计公司23-25年营收分别达14.54/19.15/23.94亿元，归母净利润分别为3.0/3.7/4.7亿元。我们选取公司业务涉及电压连接件业务且产品结构相似的长缆科技，从事GIL系列产品研发和生产的平高电气，及涉及预装式模块化变电站业务的特锐德作为可比公司。根据WIND一致预期，可比公司2023年平均PE估值35X，考虑公司逐渐产能释放及利润维持高位，首次覆盖，给予公司23年30XPE，对应目标价53.4元，给予“买入”评级。

风险提示：政策风险、市场风险、产品质量风险、技术失密和核心技术人员流失风险、文中测算具有一定主观性，仅供参考。

图片起原：新华社

记者：一些西方媒体可能会说，中国的“一带一齐”把基础规范计议带到了欧洲或拉好意思，但他们也带来退回务陷坑。你的意见怎么？

伊夫·莱特姆：

是的，咱们对此必须要提神。我以为全球大深广经济体齐在应用“杠杆”的弥留作用，是以相干货币计策和货币诊疗应该要点沟通到这少许。“一带一齐”投资亦然雷同，必须要合理，妥善沟通列国的经济景况和陈说智力，确保投资后该国的景况比投资前更好。我以为在大深广情况下——绝大深广情况下，情况确乎是这么的。

Yeah, we have to be careful for that. I think that the most of the economies worldwide have built up quite an important leverage. And so monetary policy and monetary adjustment should take that very well into account, including in terms of the BRI, there always has to be a good reasoning, a good thinking over the payback capacity of the economy, of the country, and make sure that after the investment, the country is better off than before the investment. But I think that in most of the cases, in a vast majority of the cases, this is reality.

诚然，咱们手脚西方国度也参预了发展援手，但不错这么说，咱们被施行击败了，也即是说，咱们的许多发展援手并莫得给有计划国度带来咱们想要的贬抑。恶臭、治聪敏力、合理当用资金、合理当用投资等问题是要道的先决条款。因此，咱们在这方面应该非常提神，以确保当列国签署左券并包袱一定债务时，它们有偿还智力。不外在大深广情况下，情况确乎是这么的，投资和基建确乎改善了列国的经济。

Of course, we also as Western countries have invested in development aid. And it's fair to say let's be humbled by reality, which means that a lot of our development aid did not bring the countries concerned to the result we wanted. There are issues like corruption, governance, good use of money, good use of investment that are key, conditionalities. So we should be very careful in that field to make sure that when countries sign contracts and build up a certain amount of debt, they have the payback capacity. But in most of all cases, that's reality. And the investment and infrastructure actually improves their economic performance.

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图片起原：中国日报

出品东谈主：王浩 邢志刚

监制：柯荣谊 宋平

制片：张少伟

记者：沈一鸣 张安定 栗想月 刘源 夏琳 张钊 栾瑞英 辛欣 刘夏

实习生：杨恒瑞 庄舒涵

中国不雅察智库

中国日报新媒体中心

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